Connect with us

Opinion

New housing sales – by Matusik

Published

on

Ipswich Investor, Property Management, Real Estate Ipswich, Mortgage Broker Ipswich, Ipswich property market, new housing sales

Queensland’s new home sales rose by 1% in February.Ipswich Investor, Property Management, Real Estate Ipswich, Mortgage Broker Ipswich, Ipswich property market, new housing sales

New home sales fell by 5% in February with apartment sales down 11% & detached house sales down by 4%.  Detached house sales fell by 14% in Victoria, 3% in New South Wales & 7% in South Australia but rose in Western Australia (+2%) & Queensland (+1%).

Several commentators remarked that the drop in new home sales was not a worry, well “at least for the moment” to quote the Commbank.  Home sales are still about 10% higher than the lows set five months ago but for mine, given low interest rates, new sales (and hence new housing construction) should be much higher & they should be improving on a monthly basis.

Despite lifts in new housing starts in recent months, there will most likely be about 146,000 new housing starts across Australia this financial year.  This will be just 3% more than the year before.

New housing construction fell by 10% during 2011/12 & also dropped by 6% during the preceding financial year.

In fact, new housing starts across Australia have fallen five out of the last ten years; showed no real change for another two years since the early 2000s; & have risen during three years only since 2002/03.

And next year – financial 2013/14 – if the growth over the past three months can be sustained, then up to 160,000 new housing starts are possible.  But the HIA are forecasting a more subdued fiscal 2014 with just 146,000 starts (a repeat of 2012/13), despite interest rates being at record lows & a significant rise in population growth in recent years.

Even if the 160,000 starts happen, Australia’s new housing market needs a serious overhaul.  It is just spluttering along.

Below are some housing start statistics.

Distribution of starts.  According to the HIA, 40,000 new starts are expected to take place in Victoria next year – this equates to a 28% share of the Australian market.  New South Wales is to get 36,000 starts (25% share); Queensland 31,000 new dwellings (21%) followed by Western Australia with 24,000 commencements or a 16% market share.

The other four states/territories combined hold just 10% of the overall Australian market.

Movements in new construction.  Despite getting top billing next year, new starts are expected to fall by 13% across Victoria next year, when compared to the 2012/13 financial year.  In contrast, new starts are expected to rise by 13% in both Queensland & South Australia.  A half decent lift (of 11%) is expected in the Northern Territory.  New starts are expected to remain steady in New South Wales, and fall 5% in the ACT.

New product mix.  Three out of five (62%) of the new dwellings built across Australia next year will be detached houses.  Obviously, 38% will be attached product – most of which will be apartments or townhouses.

Almost half of the new product built in New South Wales, the Northern Territory & the ACT will be attached.  Two out of five new dwellings in Victoria these days are also attached; followed by Queensland with 37%; Tasmania and South Australia each with 25% & Western Australia with 19%.

Changes to product mix.   Ten years ago, close to one in seven (68%) of new dwellings built across Australia were detached.  Today it has dropped to 62%.

The biggest mover by state towards ‘alternate’ new housing forms over the past decade has been Victoria, with a 24% attached market share in 2004 to 41% next year.  Next is Tasmania, from 12% to 25%, followed by Queensland from 33% ten years ago to 37% now.  The other states/territories have seen little change in their new broad dwelling mix over the last ten years.

All three states essentially are playing catch-up.  Stigma (both from the development community & the public), plus archaic planning, has kept new attached development subdued in Victoria; Tasmania & Queensland.

The Newman government’s new state assessment & referral agency (SARA) is a step in the right direction.

In summary, unless we see serious government action (like SARA) to assist new housing get off the ground, new starts will continue to be artificially curtailed.  This limitation on new housing construction will see Australia enter another period of serious undersupply – it has already started; which it turn should drive prices north & will create – in about three, maybe four years’ time – another price-driven bust.

Ironically, higher levels of residential construction will be an important economic growth driver once mining investment begins to wind down.

If new housing starts continue to rise in line with the trend over recent months – i.e. head towards 160,000 during financial 2013/14 – then the cash rate is likely to remain at 3.00% throughout calendar 2013.

But if the HIA’s outlook becomes reality (146,000 starts or thereabouts next financial year) – and keep in mind that building approval figures tend to be volatile – then the cash rate will need to fall further.

Enjoy the ride!

 

Article originally published  by Matusikmissive.com.au  on 16/4/2013

Continue Reading
Advertisement
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Opinion

Gold Coast house values record the biggest growth in Queensland

Published

on

Gold Coast house values record the biggest growth in Queensland

The Gold Coast has recorded the strongest growth in house prices in Queensland over the past 12 months.

GOLD Coast house prices are leading the way in Queensland, up six per cent in the past 12 months to an average $620,000.

The latest figures by the Real Estate Institute of Queensland show homes on the Glitter Strip are $35,000 more on the same time last year.

Unit prices are up 1.9 per cent to $428,000.

Gold Coast house values record the biggest growth in Queensland
REIQ data reveals houses on the Glitter Strip are worth $35,000 on the same time last year.

REIQ’s Queensland Market Monitor for March said the strong population growth came on the back of infrastructure projects such as the $550 million Gold Coast Health and Knowledge Precinct and M1 upgrades.

“The property market has been one of the big winners from the sporting event as the $1.5 billion infrastructure investment has boosted confidence and demand for housing in the region,” the report stated.

“We expect house prices will show an upward path in 2018. However, this growth will most likely be more moderate.”

A quiet real estate period leading up to, and during, the Commonwealth Games likely contributed to a slight drop (-0.3 per cent) in the March quarterly median sales price, the report reveals.

Gold Coast house values record the biggest growth in Queensland
Andrew Henderson says a growing population and employment opportunities were contributing to a strong property market. Picture: Jerad Williams

REIQ Gold Coast zone chairman Andrew Henderson said he expected interstate migration to continue to benefit the city.

“I expect the market to remain strong,” he said.

“There is a heavy amount of interstate buyers moving here.

“I was at an auction recently where the winning bidder was from Sydney and the underbidder was from Melbourne.”

Mr Henderson said growing employment opportunities were also attracting homebuyers to the city.

Gold Coast house values record the biggest growth in Queensland
The Gold Coast property market is expected to remain strong.

“We have some of the best health facilities in the country and our universities are world recognised.

“Those two things alone complement the tourism industry and the lifestyle aspects that the Coast offers.”

The report found the fastest-selling suburbs on the Coast included Worongary, Merrimac, Highland Park, Mudgeeraba and Carrara.

It also revealed the rental vacancy held tight throughout the first quarter of the year at 1.1 per cent.

Gold Coast house values record the biggest growth in Queensland
Andrew Bell says the Coast had evolved from a tourist town into a vibrant city with an expanding economy. Picture Mike Batterham

Ray White Surfers Paradise Group CEO Andrew Bell said the Games heralded the next chapter for the Coast, as it evolved from a tourist town into a vibrant city with an expanding economy.

“The city’s property market is riding the irreversible momentum that has now come to the Gold Coast in terms of economic diversity and with more employment options we will need more housing options for people,” Mr Bell said.

“We are no longer going to be subject to tourism upsides and downsides as we were in the past because our economy has well and truly diversified beyond just tourism.”

Source: brisbaneinvestor.com.au

Continue Reading

Opinion

Australia’s golden triangle of opportunity

Published

on

Australia's golden triangle of opportunity

It was great to be back on the Gold Coast for the 21st annual Australasian Real Estate Conference (AREC), attended by over 4,000 of Australia’s best industry professionals.  While I was there I was once again reminded of how much potential the South-East Queensland property market is offering both sea changers and investors at this stage in its market cycle.

In my view, Brisbane is the best market in Australia currently for short to medium term price growth, with the value gap between it and the other big East Coast capitals as large as I’ve seen it in many years.

When you factor in the key drivers for future growth – liveability, affordability, scale and future economic prospects, they all suggest that Brisbane is a market to invest in.  Check out the latest statistics from CoreLogic below.

Value gap – median house prices 

Brisbane $536,286

Melbourne $821,006

Sydney $1,019,093

Value gap – median apartment prices

Brisbane $385,121

Melbourne $573,673

Sydney $749,765

I’ve been bullish on Brisbane for many years and in hindsight, I called its next growth phase a couple of years too early. It’s had some growth in recent years but there is a lot more to come over the next few years.

According to McGrath’s top prestige agent in Brisbane, Alex Jordan, one of the dominant trends today is downsizers buying up luxury apartments.

Alex says: “Despite the reported oversupply in Brisbane’s inner city apartment market, we are seeing great strength in the prestige apartment sector.

“The luxury apartment market ($1M+) is driven by owner occupiers, particularly baby boomers and empty nesters, who are attracted to less maintenance and better accessibility.

“Popular suburbs include New Farm, Newstead, Teneriffe, Kangaroo Point, South Brisbane, St Lucia, Paddington and the Brisbane CBD. These areas offer a desirable lifestyle with an abundance of shopping, dining and entertaining precincts at their doorstep.”

South East Queensland has so many options for asset-rich, cash-poor southerners. Many of our customers in Sydney and Melbourne are looking closely at South East Queensland both for investment and a potential sea change. I believe its affordability will continue to attract record levels of interstate migration.

If you live in Sydney or Melbourne and you’re struggling with the mortgage and cost of living, Brisbane is a fantastic alternative. It offers big city job opportunities, high quality education options and the chance to transform your financial future.

The boom delivered Sydney and Melbourne home owners a capital gain of up to 75% – that’s enormous new equity that could be cashed in to fund an amazing new lifestyle with far less mortgage stress up north. Plus, you’d be buying in just before Brisbane’s next wave of price growth. It’s the perfect scenario.

I believe the area from the Gold Coast to Toowoomba and up to the Sunshine Coast is Australia’s golden triangle right now.

Toowoomba, with its expanded airport facilities which have opened up easy access to the south, is the perfect and affordable treechange destination. Known as Queensland’s Garden City, about 2,300 people moved here from Brisbane last year for its cheaper house prices and enjoyable regional city lifestyle.

Both the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast are also appealing sea change options benefitting from a raft of new infrastructure that will drive further population growth and generate more local jobs.

Brisbane is one of the world’s great cities but I don’t think this is fully realised as yet. If you haven’t been to Brisbane for a number of years, get on a plane. This is a thriving city that offers many of the lifestyle amenities you love about the southern capitals but at a much cheaper price.

I think Brisbane will also become very attractive to migration and investment from Asia in the years ahead.

South East Queensland is offering opportunity everywhere for both owner occupiers and investors alike. Now’s the time to consider what Australia’s premier lifestyle market can do for you!

Source: brisbaneinvestor.com.au

Continue Reading

Opinion

These are the top 3 spots to bag a bargain in Brisbane: Ryder

Published

on

These are the top 3 spots to bag a bargain in Brisbane: Ryder

Property analyst Terry Ryder has picked three spots to invest in Brisbane. Picture: Richard Walker.Source:News Corp Australia

WANT to know where to invest in Brisbane that’s both affordable and offers the prospect of price growth? Look no further…

THERE are only three areas in Greater Brisbane that offer affordable real estate with growth potential, according to property analyst Terry Ryder.

The founder of Hotspotting.com.au has identified three precincts where there are plenty of houses well below the median Brisbane house price of around $530,000, close to transport links, shopping and jobs nodes, and with median rental yields in the 5 to 5.5 per cent range.

Here they are:

These are the top 3 spots to bag a bargain in Brisbane: Ryder

Hotspoting.com.au director Terry Ryder at his home in Queensland.Source:News Limited

1. Goodna-Redbank Plains, Ipswich

These suburbs are at the eastern fringe of the Ipswich local government area — the part closest to Brisbane, the motorway and the train line.

They are also close to the Springfield masterplanned community, which has an array of modern facilities, including university campus, hospital and commercial-retail precincts.

“There are numerous big shopping centres and major employment nodes nearby, with the recently announced $5 billion Defence vehicle contract focused on this precinct as a major new jobs creator,” Mr Ryder said.

These are the top 3 spots to bag a bargain in Brisbane: Ryder

Terry Ryder thinks parts of Ipswich would make a good property investment. Picture: Chris McCormack.Source:News Corp Australia

 These are the top 3 spots to bag a bargain in Brisbane: Ryder

Terry Ryder thinks Redbank Plains is a good place to invest in property.Source:News Limited

2. Eagleby-Beenleigh-Woodridge, Logan

Mr Ryder said these older suburbs in Logan had median house prices in the $300,000s and were clustered around the train line and the Pacific Motorway, both of which link central Brisbane to the Gold Coast.

“This is also where there is an impressive shopping offering, including major bulky goods retail, and well-established infrastructure like schools and medical facilities (as well as a surprising number of golf courses).

3. Moreton Bay

The suburbs of Beachmere, Burpengary and Upper Caboolture have experienced double-digit growth in their median house prices in the past year, according to Mr Ryder.

They are all close to major road and rail links, but aren’t as expensive as North Lakes has become.

Even in the Redcliffe Peninsula, where most of the water-focused suburbs are, the median house price is only in the $400,000s.

And the Peninsula now has rail links to central Brisbane, making it an even more appealing prospect.

These are the top 3 spots to bag a bargain in Brisbane: Ryder

The Moreton Bay Rail link has made the area more appealing to property investors, according to Terry Ryder. Picture: Tara Croser.Source:News Corp Australia

Source: moretoninvestor.com.au

Continue Reading

Make your Super Work

smsf property investment smsf borrowing

Positive Cashflow Property

duplex designs, dual occupancy homes

Build a Property Portfolio

property investing property portfolio