What’s driving the market at the moment?
At this stage there are several factors affecting each of the big three east coast markets currently.
Melbourne: Melbourne is in a bit of a fluctuating period from the data we see. There is a large amount of supply both in approval and construction phases all the way from Docklands to Werribee. The next three to five years are going to be very suburb specific for growth. Pure Property Investment (PPI) is still looking for established property under the $400,000 market in the north and south-west within 25 kilometres of the city.
Sydney: Similar story, still a large undersupply issue in certain pockets of the greater metropolitan areas and the demand looks set to continue into the next decade. Affordability and wage growth are the major limiting factors we see in general. We do see some value in the established pockets of the middle ring (20 kilometres from the city), however cash flow is not attractive at this stage. We see more value coming to hand in the next three to five years.
Brisbane: Our data suggests that Brisbane will continue to show a nice period of sustained growth into 2020. Its limiting factor in the past has been state government commitment to large-scale infrastructure projects, however, we are starting to see some stronger and more stable jobs figures and in the pockets of Ipswich, Lower Logan/Beenleigh and Moreton Bay. We see (and have seen for the past 24 months) some excellent opportunities to pick up properties around the $300,000 mark in areas which are seeing large scale gentrification and great yields.
Hobart: The east coast’s sleepy cousin is stirring a little and there are some good signs in the short-to-medium term for jobs growth. With the rise of the tourism dollar (specifically China) there is a very tight vacancy rate and demand is building. I see a good couple of years with good cash flow opportunities up to the year 2020.
Adelaide: PPI are a bit bearish in the next two to three years, with some of the large scale manufacturing plants closing over the short term. The announcement of the $50 billion submarine project will provide a great boost with an additional 3,000 or so high paying jobs flowing from this. However this project has a 15-year horizon and as such we don’t see the benefits coming in until around 2019 to 2022.
Perth: Well, it’s a bit of a tale of ‘if you can’t say anything nice, don’t say anything at all’. Perth has some very depressed markets which are getting more depressed by the day. The only saving grace for Perth property investors at this stage are the historically low interest rates. They are not showing any real sign of transitioning their economy from iron ore and gas to mainstream economic drivers. If the state federal government can’t drive jobs growth in the next one to two years before the interests rates start to rise, I do see a blood bath in the short term as investors will not be able to hold their investments once interest rates start to rise. However, the savvy investor will most certainly keep a distinct eye on this market and if we see a turnaround in the days on market, jobs growth and buyer sentiment there will be some distinct bargains to be had.
Darwin: Similar to Perth, we see some distinct challenges in jobs growth and economic diversification. If the new gas project gets off the ground we may see some prolonged price stability, however PPI are bearish on Darwin at this stage.
Canberra: The little engine that could, Canberra continues to deliver investors a solid and stable return. With the Q4 2015/2016 data showing Canberra has delivered the country’s best growth (at over 3 per cent) for the quarter, a stable government and jobs market will continue to provide a safe return for investors. Cash flow is a little slim and entry point is a bit higher (around the $450,000 to $550,000 mark).
So what’s the cash flow situation in general for each state?
Melbourne: Supply on the market and coming to the market is looking very high, and we believe this is going to depress yields for the next three to five years.
Sydney: The more tightly held (non-developable) areas have seen a slightly higher yield albeit a small bump. Sydney is expensive and that is still keeping many Generation Y’s in the rental market as they can’t afford to enter the home buyers/investor market. However the data suggests yields are around the 3 to 4 per cent depending on the area and we don’t see that changing. Creative investors are always looking to add cash flow (granny flats, share accommodation, developing blocks, etc).
Brisbane: One of the better cash flow markets across the country with strong yields and good demand. Stick to the growing areas of Ipswich, Beenleigh/Logan, Moreton Bay where we are buying 6 per cent plus yielding (sub 15-year-old) properties in growth areas. Be sure to understand the vacancy rates and unemployment situations however as they can prove to be very important in these markets.
Hobart: Very tight supply (sub 2 per cent) which is providing great return for cash flow investors. Stick to the middle/outer suburbs (10 to 25 kilometres from city). We are picking up properties which are providing 7 to 8 per cent yields regularly.
Adelaide: Stick to the middle/inner rings. Cash-flow is okay in Adelaide at the moment, and we see that continuing into the next two to three years. Though 5 per cent gross yields are readily achievable, I would steer clear of the outer rings until we see the true fallout of the manufacturing sector.
Perth and Darwin: Cash-flow is okay, but the big caveat is the demand factor. On paper, the properties are achieving 5 per cent gross but the vacancy rates are increasing by the day and this will be a big issue in the long run.
Canberra: With low vacancy rates within the 15 kilometre ring of our capital we see an even keel return of around the 4 to 4.5 per cent gross mark. This is not lighting anyone’s socks on fire, however it’s pretty consistent and looks to remain that way.
So which regions have the most potential for capital growth under $450,000? Which regions have limited potential?
Brisbane: Still our number one pick at the moment, specifically out towards Ipswich, Lower Logan suburbs and Moreton Bay. Price point is still extremely affordable, yields are excellent and demand/jobs creation is building.
Perth and Darwin: In the short term we don’t see any data that is going to help its situation. Perth has seen a doubling of the properties on the market between 2014 and 2016 and they have a long way to go to show signs of growth. It is relatively cheap buying in Perth at the moment but you need to pick the start of the next growth cycle and not just the bottom to ensure you are achieving capital growth.
So that’s our around the grounds for financial year 2016/2017. As you can see, its most certainly not a ‘one market’ approach and where you invest will most certainly dictate your returns in the lucky county.
Original article published at www.smartpropertyinvestment.com.au by Paul Glossop
Rainwater tanks and temporary barriers could protect Brisbane from floods
Queenslanders will be encouraged to raise and wet-proof their homes to protect against damage from floods, while temporary barriers could protect parts of the Brisbane CBD from inundation.
A flood-resilient building guide has been released by the state government alongside a new Brisbane River Strategic Floodplain Management Plan.
The guidelines for property owners are non-mandatory and do not replace requirements under the Building Act.
It includes recommendations for flood-resilient design options, such as elevating the finished floor level, wet-proofing the house to allow water to enter and leave without causing significant damage, dry-proofing to prevent water from entering a building, ventilation to prevent mould, and permeable fencing.
Home builders could also use rainwater tanks to store storm water that may otherwise contribute to flooding.
State Development Minister Cameron Dick said home owners were encouraged to talk to a licensed builder or architect about the guide and how they could incorporate flood-resilience strategies into their homes to reduce the cost and impact of future floods.
Meanwhile, the strategic plan, created with the Brisbane, Ipswich, Somerset and Lockyer Valley councils, Queensland government and Seqwater, includes 52 recommendations to strengthen flood resilience of communities in the Brisbane River flood plain.
It suggests consideration of temporary flood barriers in the Brisbane CBD and South Brisbane to prevent flooding.
“The temporary nature of the barriers means that they can be deployed in locations that are normally used for other purposes such as roadways,” the strategic plan reads.
Initial assessments suggested temporary flood barriers could provide flood immunity up to the one in 100-year flood level for South Brisbane and one in 200 years for the Brisbane CBD.
Consideration should also be given to a flood gate which could be installed along Marsden Parade in the Ipswich CBD to prevent backwater flooding from the Bremer River.
“When the flood gates are closed, the rail embankment would act as a temporary dam wall and prevent flooding of low-lying land, being the Ipswich CBD,” the report reads.
It also suggests Goodna could be protected from a one in 100-year flood through the installation of a flood wall levee along the Ipswich Motorway.
Ipswich City Council chief executive David Farmer said the flood gate and levee options would undergo feasibility testing as part of the development of a flood plain management plan for Ipswich.
The report estimates that during a one in 100-year flood in the Brisbane River flood plain, 17,300 buildings would be flooded, two-thirds of which would be in the Brisbane City Council area.
Out of that total, 12,000 were expected to be flooded above the main habitable floor level.
A one in 100-year flood would cost $6.8 billion, which was comparable to damages from the 2011 floods.
Mr Dick said the strategic plan was produced following the 2011 floods.
“Those floods left a deep scar across south-east Queensland and across those communities and families as well,” he said.
Mr Dick said as a result of the plan, councils would be better placed to make decisions about where development could and could not occur.
“It’s increased the capacity of councils to make proper planning decisions, for example, councils could take action such as acquiring land … that is zoned as urban, and acquire it and rezone it for non-urban purposes,” he said.
Mr Dick said while floods could not be prevented, the impacts on properties could be reduced.
“This [plan] has taken four years to produce – there’s been 50,000 computer model simulation and we’ve researched 134,000 properties that have been affected by flooding,” he said.
Councils will use the strategic plan to inform their flood plain management plans.
Three bedroom North Booval, Qld townhouse listed for mortgagee sale
A three bedroom North Booval, Qld townhouse has been listed with an asking price of $175,000.
It is described in the listing as a “perfect home base for travellers or downsizers or tenant ready investment opportunity.”
Gai Flynn of First National Real Estate holds the listing.
Situated at 90/50 Gledson Street, North Booval the property is made up of three bedrooms two bathrooms and a single garage.
Set on 130 sqm, every bedroom features a ceiling fans, vertical blinds and built-in robes.
Featuring a concreted alfresco outdoor plus shady shrubs for privacy.
Located withing ‘The Complex’ which has a swimming pool and BBQ facilities available for residents and is 1.2 kilometre to the Bundamba train station.
The median price for a home in North Booval is $279,500 according to CoreLogic, which calculate its annual change in median price over the past 10 years as -3.1%.
Affordable havens The sub $300,000 suburbs on the verge of extinction in Brisbane
Suburbs with a median house price of $300,000 or less are on the verge of extinction in Greater Brisbane. So, where can you still buy property for that price in 2019?
SUBURBS with a median house price of $300,000 or less are on the verge of extinction across Brisbane.
Figures from property researcher CoreLogic show house prices in some of the city’s most affordable postcodes experienced above average growth over the past year, leading to a drop in sales at lower price points.
Only 1.7 per cent of properties in Brisbane changed hands for less than $200,000 in 2018.
In 2019, there are no longer any suburbs in the Brisbane local government area with a median house price of $300,000 or less.
Across Greater Brisbane, there are now only 19 mainland suburbs with a median house price under $300,000, whereas there were double that number a decade ago.
The last affordable havens can be found in the Ipswich suburbs of Riverview, Dinmore and One Mile, in the Logan locations of Kingston, Logan Central and Woodridge and in Caboolture South in Moreton Bay.
The median house price in Greater Brisbane is now $532,000, according to CoreLogic.
More than a third of sales in Brisbane during 2018 were between $400,000 and $600,000, while 7.8 per cent were at $1 million or more.
CoreLogic senior analyst Cameron Kusher said that was a drastic change from the state of affairs over the past couple of decades, with the majority of sales in 1993 and 1998 coming in below $200,000.
“Over time, there has been a steady climb in the share of sales across the more expensive price points,” Mr Kusher said.
“While you’d expect this in the markets that have seen strong value growth such as Sydney, Melbourne and Hobart, we have also seen it across markets where value growth has been much weaker.”
Mr Kusher said that even though he expected slightly more sales to occur at lower price points over the next year, he did not expect any material change in the share of sales under $200,000 — in fact they may reduce even further.
Real Estate Institute of Queensland chief executive Antonia Mercorella said Brisbane still had plenty of affordable suburbs with good quality housing compared to Sydney and Melbourne.
“We have so many affordable options in really high growth suburbs,” Ms Mercorella said.
“They’re not going to run out tomorrow.
“And many are still within a 12km to 15km radius of the city, which is pretty mind-blowing compared with Sydney and Melbourne.”
Ms Mercorella said Brisbane’s affordable havens provided great opportunities for entry level property buyers.
“Many people assume a $300,000 house must be a dump, but that’s just not the case in the southeast corner,” she said.
“Low price does not mean low quality.”
Nick Kruger, principal of Your Haven Realty, said there were still plenty of opportunities for first home buyers to get a foot on the property ladder in Riverview, which has the cheapest median house price in Greater Brisbane.
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Mr Kruger said that he had noticed a shift in the buyer profile in the market as a result of the banks cracking down on lending.
“Predominantly, in the past, investors were snapping up these properties for their SMSF because of the good rental returns,” Mr Kruger said.
“Now the banks have cracked down, that’s incentivising a market change.
“It’s better for owner-occupiers now, because they have a chance to get it over investors.
“But in time, obviously these prices will jump so the sooner you can get in, the better.”
He is marketing a three-bedroom house at 57 Price St, Riverview, which is currently leased for $290 a week and is on the market for offers over $245,000.
“That’s a good figure for an investor,” Mr Kruger said.
“At that price point, for a three-bedder on a 600 sqm plus block so close to Redbank Plaza and within 5 minutes walk of sought-after schools, I definitely it’s ideal for first home buyers or young families.”
Single parent Telita Webb has rented the home with three of her children for the past year, but would love to buy the property if she could afford the deposit.
“I love the place; Riverview’s my home,” Ms Webb said.
Chris and Tiffany Campbell live in Bundamba, which is one of greater Brisbane’s last affordable havens — just scraping in with a median house price of $292,752.
The couple are renovating a turn-of-the-century Queenslander, which they recently bought for $315,000.
“Bundamba has a bad wrap; I’m not sure why,” Mrs Campbell said.
“The street we live in is so quiet and full of beautiful, old Queenslanders, and you can see the growth potential.
“I think it is one of those places a lot of people forget about.”
They sold another property last year that they had bought and renovated two years earlier in North Ipswich and made more than $100,000 in profit.
we knew going into it and paying price we did in an up andcoming suburb it was going to be a good investment
Propertyology managing director Simon Pressley said Ipswich was becoming a popular location for property investors because of its affordability, solid rental yields and good infrastructure.
But Mr Pressley said he was not convinced the region had the ability to create the volume of jobs required to put pressure on the local labour market and drive property prices significantly higher.
“One could do worse than investing in Ipswich, however, my overall rating of the Ipswich property market is a middle-of-the-road performer for the feasible future,” Mr Pressley said.
THE SUB $300,000 SUBURBS ON THE VERGE OF EXTINCTION IN 2019:
Suburb Region Median house Change in median Change in median
price Mar 2019 12 mths to Nov 2018 5yrs
1. Riverview Ipswich $256,787 -2.3% 13.7%
2. Dinmore Ipswich $259,481 9.0% 35.2%
3. One Mile Ipswich $260,181 0.0% 15.9%
4. Leichhardt Ipswich $264,565 2.1% 22.5%
5. Rosewood Ipswich $273,359 6.9% 19.2%
6. Logan Central Logan $273,541 -3.4% 26.1%
7. Woodridge Logan $274,352 -1.3% 28.1%
8. Basin Pocket Ipswich $275,769 -4.6% 25.6%
9. Ebbw Vale Ipswich $276,599 -6.1% 20.3%
10. Kingston Logan $285,032 -2.4% 24.2%
11. Goodna Ipswich $285,329 -4.1% 10.8%
12. Tivoli Ipswich $292,168 -2.7% 8.6%
13. Bundamba Ipswich $292,752 4% 14.4%
14. North Booval Ipswich $293,058 4.6% 17.9%
15. Caboolture South Moreton Bay $293,517 0.6% 16.2%
16. Gailes Ipswich $293,572 0.7% 11.8%
17. Churchill Ipswich $295,020 1.1% 7.2%
18. East Ipswich Ipswich $297,405 13% 27.1%
19. Wulkaraka Ipswich $299,733 6% 2.6%
Originally published as What $300K will buy you in 2019